Khartoum, Sudan — In the shadows of more globally watched conflicts, a devastating war continues to ravage Sudan, claiming lives and displacing millions, yet it often escapes the international spotlight. Since April 2023, fierce battles have ensued between the Sudanese Armed Forces and the paramilitary Rapid Support Forces, originally unified under a power-sharing military government. The ongoing strife has led to catastrophic human suffering, including a massive displacement of over 14 million people and an intricate division of the nation by geography and ideology.
The unyielding violence has also inflicted a severe toll on Sudan’s infrastructure and healthcare systems, exacerbating public health crises across a country already challenged by food shortages and disease outbreaks. Moreover, the recent flooding in the northern states has further complicated the dire situation, complicating the efforts to deliver emergency aid and services to the affected populations.
Estimating the death toll of such a complex conflict poses significant challenges, as both direct violence-related deaths and indirect mortality caused by the war’s broader impacts need to be considered. Indirect mortality includes those dying from lack of emergency health care, the collapse of vaccination programs, and the absence of vital food and medicine supplies. Scholars and humanitarian organizations often struggle to calculate these numbers due to varying methodologies and the difficulty in accessing timely data.
According to a congressional testimony by U.S. special envoy to Sudan, Tom Perriello, estimates of the death toll range broadly from 15,000 to 150,000, reflecting the complexities involved in attributing what constitutes indirect mortality. The Armed Conflict Location and Event Data (ACLED), a nonprofit specializing in conflict-related data collection, and other reliable sources, however, put the number of direct conflict deaths at nearly 19,000 for the first 15 months of the fight.
Research further complicates these figures by suggesting the number of indirect deaths could significantly exceed those killed directly from conflict. Historical data and established research methodologies indicate that for every direct death in similar conflicts, multiple indirect deaths may occur due to exacerbated existing health crises and infrastructure breakdowns.
In particular, children and other vulnerable groups bear the brunt of the conflict’s compounded harms. Reports indicate that displacement camps, such as Zamzam camp in North Darfur, experience alarming rates of child mortality, primarily due to undernutrition and a lack of accessible medical care.
The conflict has also seen deliberate attacks on healthcare workers and facilities, a tactic that cripples immediate care and future recovery for the region. Nearly 80% of medical facilities in the country have been reported as inoperable, and at least 58 physicians have been killed amidst the fighting, with many more targeted.
Amidst these critical conditions, outbreaks of communicable diseases have surged. An episode of cholera in August, for instance, saw a spike in fatalities, exacerbating an already tense public health environment. The regularity and impact of such outbreaks further demonstrate the severe consequences of the ongoing conflict.
This burgeoning crisis in Sudan highlights the essential need for comprehensive and timely international support and intervention. The stakes are not only national but profoundly humanitarian, demanding a concerted global effort to alleviate suffering and restore stability.
In the calculation of the tragic costs of this war, the importance of persistence in documenting and understanding the conflict cannot be overstressed. This necessity is echoed by health experts and human rights scholars, who argue that while methods may be imperfect, the endeavor to measure and report on these crises is crucial for both current aid responses and future conflict prevention.
As the international community continues to grapple with multiple crises, the war in Sudan should not fall through the cracks. The depth of human suffering and the urgent need for a sustained, coordinated global response must place this conflict high on the international agenda to foster peace and healing for a devastated population.