Dublin, Ireland — Nearly five years have passed since the initial outbreak of COVID-19, yet the repercussions of Ireland’s prolonged lockdown measures are still largely unexplored. Despite previous assurances from officials like Simon Harris about conducting a thorough public inquiry prior to the general election, progress has been conspicuously absent. Current data raises daunting questions, emphasized by a recent Eurostat report which positions Ireland as having one of the highest excess mortality rates in the European Union.
According to Eurostat’s statistics, Ireland recorded an 11.5% excess mortality rate in December 2024, ranking as the fourth highest in the EU, contrasted starkly by negative rates in countries like Croatia, Bulgaria, and Latvia. This illustrates a persistent issue, as historical data confirms that Ireland has frequently surpassed the EU average in this grim statistic since the pandemic onset.
Excess mortality refers to the number of deaths during a specific period that exceeds the average number observed in previous years, in this case compared to 2016-2019. This measure is considered a crucial indicator of overall health impacts, encompassing all causes of deaths and providing a broad gauge of national health crises.
The prolonged COVID-19 lockdowns, severe and extensive, likely exacerbated disruptions in medical services, particularly affecting screenings and early interventions for diseases such as cancer. A European Commission study underscores this concern, listing Ireland as having the second-highest rate of new cancer diagnoses in the EU for 2022. With both men and women in Ireland showing considerably higher cancer incidence rates compared to the EU average, the potential long-term effects of missed or delayed medical care during lockdowns appear alarming.
The implications are profound, as argued in a 2024 Lancet study, which attributes a sharp decline in the U.K.’s cancer diagnoses during the pandemic to decreased healthcare-seeking behavior induced by lockdown measures and related fears. The study estimates a dramatic fall in weekly cancer diagnosis rates and suggests that during the initial lockdown, nearly half of those with potential cancer symptoms refrained from contacting general practitioners.
This situation presents not just a healthcare crisis but a challenge to the integrity and responsiveness of public policies. The apparent reluctance by political and health officials to address the issue of excess deaths is troubling. Insights from the Department of Health and the Society of Actuaries indicate that methods to measure excess deaths vary, and ongoing assessments may change as more data becomes available. However, the call for a transparent, dedicated examination into the drivers behind Ireland’s persistently high mortality rates is met with bureaucratic delays and data discrepancies.
Several EU monitors like the Health Protection Surveillance Centre and EuroMOMO have been tracking excess mortality, offering some insights, yet their findings are often provisional due to delays in data reporting. Furthermore, societal aging is a significant factor, as Eurostat figures do not always account for demographic changes like the notable increase in Ireland’s elderly population, which grew by 32% between 2016 and 2024.
The discrepancies between various health statistical bodies and the ongoing issues with delayed reporting and opaque governmental responses underscore a critical need for clarity. With increasing cancer rates and potentially missed diagnoses casting long shadows, the urgency for a specialized task force to investigate and address Ireland’s persistent excess mortality cannot be overstated. Delving into the root causes of these disturbing trends is essential for crafting effective public health strategies and restoring public confidence in health management systems.