Khartoum, Sudan — A recent study has revealed that over 61,000 people have perished in the state of Khartoum during the initial 14 months of Sudan’s ongoing conflict, with indications that the actual numbers could be substantially higher. This new report, assembled by the Sudan Research Group at the London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine alongside Sudanese researchers, sheds light on the severe human cost of the war that has largely gone unquantified.
The research, which is still awaiting peer review, details that approximately 26,000 of these deaths were due to violent confrontations, significantly higher than figures currently reported by the United Nations for the entire nation. Importantly, the study points out that the leading causes of death have shifted from direct conflict to starvation and diseases, exacerbated by the infrastructural damages wrought by the war.
The escalated death rate in Khartoum state is reportedly 50% greater than the national average before the warfare erupted in April 2023 between the army and the Rapid Support Forces, a major paramilitary group. This conflict has not only led to immense loss of life but has also displaced 11 million individuals and triggered a catastrophic hunger crisis. As per the United Nations, nearly half of Sudan’s population, about 25 million people, now requires humanitarian aid. Moreover, famine conditions have already been identified in at least one displacement camp.
Compounding the tragedy is the difficulty in accurately recording the number of fatalities. Many deaths in Sudan have historically gone undocumented, a situation that has worsened with the ongoing conflict as access to essential services like hospitals and morgues has been severely hindered. Disruptions to internet and telecommunications services further isolate affected populations, leaving their predicaments largely invisible to the outside world.
To address this lack of visibility, the researchers employed the “capture-recapture” method, traditionally used in ecological research but applicable here to estimate the death toll from at least two independent data sources. According to Maysoon Dahab, co-director of the Sudan Research Group and an infectious disease epidemiologist, this methodology helps reveal the unseen extent of the catastrophe by accounting for names appearing on multiple lists and adjusting for those that are unrecorded.
The study utilized three distinct sources to compile its data. The initial list was created through a public survey shared over social media from November 2023 to June 2024. The second source consisted of ‘study ambassadors,’ like community activists, who helped distribute surveys within their circles. Lastly, researchers also considered obituaries posted on social media, which have become a common way to report deaths in Khartoum, Omdurman, and Bahri, the cities that comprise Sudan’s broader capital area.
This meticulous approach not only highlights the dire situation in Khartoum but also underlines the broader national crisis. As international attention fluctuates, continuous, detailed assessments like these are vital for understanding the full impact of the conflict on Sudan’s people and for guiding effective humanitarian responses.