London, United Kingdom — A recent study by the London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine, published in the prestigious medical journal The Lancet, suggests that the number of Palestinian casualties resulting from the conflict in Gaza may be substantially higher than previously reported. The research indicates that the fatalities could exceed 64,000 between October 2023 and June 2024, pointing to a potential underreporting by 41% compared to figures released by the Hamas-run Ministry of Health.
During this period, the official tally recorded 37,877 deaths. Notably, the study highlights that a significant proportion of those killed were non-combatants; approximately 59% were either women, children, or the elderly. The assessment provides no clear count on the number of Hamas militants who might be included in the death toll.
In an independent report, the United Nations also provided an analysis of verified deaths from November 2023 to April 2024, confirming that children made up 44% and women 26% of the casualties.
The London-based researchers employed a statistical method known as capture-recapture to arrive at their estimates. This technique involves cross-referencing data from three diverse sources: the official lists from the Palestinian Ministry of Health, an online survey requesting family members to report deceased relatives, and records of obituaries posted on social media platforms such as Instagram and Facebook.
By comparing these lists, with a focus on non-overlapping data, researchers can infer a more accurate number of deaths, including those not recorded in any of the sources.
This methodology has historically been applied in other conflict zones to estimate casualties, as noted by report co-author Zeina Jamaluddine. She cited previous applications in Sudan, Yemen, and Kosovo, highlighting its acceptance in international assessments, including those used by the International Court of Justice.
While the study captures deaths directly attributed to violence, it does not account for indirect fatalities linked to the conflict. Jamaluddine elaborated on potential uncounted deaths arising from inaccessible healthcare, exacerbated by war conditions that prevent effective treatment for non-violent illnesses and injuries.
Israel initiated its military action on Hamas following a severe attack by the group on October 7, 2023, which resulted in over 1,200 deaths, primarily civilians, and saw more than 240 individuals taken hostage, with reports suggesting almost a third of them might be deceased.
The Israeli government has maintained that its defensive measures against Hamas strictly adhere to protocols intended to minimize civilian casualties, including advanced warnings and establishing safe zones for evacuations. Nevertheless, officials in Israel assert that the unreliability of sources within Gaza complicates the accurate portrayal of the situation, accusing reports from the region of carrying potential biases.
Israel has imposed restrictions on foreign journalists’ access to Gaza, making independent verification of the facts challenging. The ongoing conflict and its resultant humanitarian impact continue to stir international concern and debate over the transparent accounting of casualties in this protracted conflict.