London — A recent report underscores the dire human toll of the ongoing conflict in Sudan, revealing that the death count likely far surpasses previous estimates. Issued by the London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine’s Sudan Research Group, the study indicates that over 60,000 lives may have been lost in the Khartoum region alone within the first 14 months of conflict, highlighting a severe humanitarian crisis that could be one of the deadliest of the 21st century.
The intricate study not only accounts for deaths directly caused by violence but also notes a significant rise in fatalities due to starvation and disease, increasingly prominent as the conflict disrupts essential services and supplies. Abdulazim Awadalla, a program manager at the Sudanese American Physicians Association, considers these numbers credible and raised concerns about worsening conditions, suggesting that “simple diseases are killing people” due to weakened immunity from malnutrition.
The report’s figures starkly contrast with other estimates, such as those from the Armed Conflict Location & Event Data project (ACLED), which records about 20,178 deaths across Sudan in the same timeframe. The study employs a “capture-recapture” method for calculating death tolls—a technique first developed for ecological studies and adapted here to cross-check multiple independent data sources, aiming to identify unrecorded deaths by finding overlaps.
The broader implications of Sudan’s conflict are alarmingly severe. Initiated in April 2023 amid a power struggle between the Sudanese army and the paramilitary Rapid Support Forces (RSF) ahead of a planned democratic transition, the war has quickly escalated. A UN fact-finding mission reported that both factions have engaged in actions that may constitute war crimes, including direct attacks on civilians.
The societal impact has been devastating, with violence displacing approximately 11 million people and triggering what the United Nations describes as the world’s largest hunger crisis. Almost 25 million people—half of Sudan’s population—are now dependent on aid.
Observers like Justin Lynch, an independent consultant on Sudan, describe the conflict as entering a “new phase of brutality,” with the war inflicting severe and widespread human suffering. In the capital of Khartoum, where much of the fighting is concentrated, residents report the unsettling sight of numerous graves appearing next to homes, as mass casualties become a grim norm.
Documenting these fatalities presents its own set of challenges. In a country where many deaths go unregistered even during times of peace, the chaos of war complicates the accurate recording of fatalities. Regular disruptions to internet service and telecommunications further isolate affected communities, leaving many unable to maintain contact with the outside world or access critical services like hospitals and morgues.
Experts like Maysoon Dahab, an infectious disease epidemiologist and co-director of the Sudan Research Group, advocate for the necessity of innovative approaches like the capture-recapture method to uncover the war’s hidden toll on human lives. Paul Spiegel from the Center for Humanitarian Health at the Johns Hopkins Bloomberg School of Public Health, although not involved in the study, acknowledged the method’s limitations but emphasized its importance in providing a clearer picture of the conflict’s impact.
Conversely, Sudan’s Federal Ministry of Health claims significantly lower figures of war-related fatalities, reporting 5,565 deaths, starkly lower than figures suggested in the study. Meanwhile, both the army and RSF continue to blame each other for the civilian casualties, with accusations of targeting non-combatants and employing heavy munitions that have exacerbated the death toll.
As international observers and local authorities grapple with these disparate figures, the need for increased humanitarian aid and a concerted effort to mitigate the conflict’s impact becomes ever more urgent. The international community continues to watch closely, hoping for a resolution that could halt one of the most severe humanitarian disasters of our era.