In the midterm elections, Republicans are the favorite to control the House of Representatives. Still, Democrats who have been preparing for large losses over the last year are finishing stronger than they started. According to public polling and recent election results, Democrats, nonpartisan election observers, and some Republicans expect a more competitive fall election. There are only a few seats Republicans need to pick up to take control of the House, which the Democrats currently hold 220-211 with four vacancies.
Nathan Gonzales and Jacob Rubashkin wrote in a report for Inside Elections, a nonpartisan election watcher, “the party in power generally doesn’t improve its electoral prospects in the final months of a midterm election.”
As Democrats try to close the gap, analysts cited a number of factors that are helping them. There are many reasons, including the fight over abortion access, a weak Republican candidate in a crucial race, investigations into former President Donald Trump, and a recent drop in gasoline prices. Republicans appeared more out of reach than last year in districts that Mr. Biden carried by at least ten percentage points.
According to the Cook Political Report, the GOP will pick up 10-20 seats, still enough to win the chamber, but down from 15-30 previously. Cook also said it couldn’t rule out a Democratic majority, citing a high Democratic turnout. According to Democratic National Committee chair Jaime Harrison, Democrats will gain seats in the Senate, gain some governorships, and maintain their majority in the House. There is real momentum behind that, she said.
Governor Larry Hogan, a moderate Republican, said the GOP would not retake the Senate or pick up gubernatorial seats, but he still believes they will win the House. As a result of Democrat failures and Biden’s low approval ratings, this should be a huge year for Republicans; Hogan told CBS. The wave will be less of a tidal wave than a ripple if we nominate unelectable people, and that’s exactly what’s happening throughout the country.
The GOP’s campaign arm, the National Republican Congressional Committee, says Mr. Biden’s stewardship of the economy, which shrank for a second consecutive quarter amid high inflation, will help propel the party to victory. Additionally, the party that controls the White House usually loses seats in the midterms.
A plan to cancel student debt unveiled by President Biden this past week could complicate the election outlook, a move demanded by many progressives but criticized by some Democrats. The Republicans called it an unfair handout to college graduates. A Justice Department investigation and the findings of a House panel looking into Jan. 6, 2021, Capitol riot could also affect the midterm result.
Some Democrats are switching gears, placing more money into ads against Republican incumbents in tight races, such as Reps. David Valadao of California, Yvette Herrell of New Mexico, and Steve Chabot of Ohio.
The House Majority PAC, a major outside group supporting House Democrats, made more than $500,000 in new advertising reservations in those districts this week. The group is playing the offensive based on the data they’ve seen in the last few months, says group president Ali Lapp.
The overturning of Roe v. Wade by the Supreme Court has increased Democratic enthusiasm to vote, according to one Republican strategist working on House races. Due to a perceived economic advantage, Republicans felt confident in entering districts that Mr. Biden carried.
As we have seen, voters are still more concerned about inflation and rising prices. Voters are still concerned about abortion. To stay in step with their districts, Republican candidates must calibrate their stance on abortion in the general election.